Been away a while and now seeing lots of changes!

Apollo
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Been away a while and now seeing lots of changes!

Post by Apollo » Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:31 pm

July 1, 2018

Hello everyone!

I have been completely away from Ikes for perhaps 18 months, and returned to find a fair number of disappointing changes!

First, it appears that prices for MS-65 and up graded Ikes have collapsed from their levels of even two years ago (by at least 50% in many cases).

Second, having not been on this website over that eighteen months or so, it appears that the volume of activity and comments has diminished considerably. So, bottom lines ... are Eisenhower dollars dying in popularity?

Charles (or any active knowledgeable collector) ... thoughts?

Regards,

David

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AndyO
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Re: Been away a while and now seeing lots of changes!

Post by AndyO » Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:34 pm

Eisenhower dollars dying in popularity? No - they are simply dying proportionally with the entire coin collecting hobby. Like it or not, anyone currently in the hobby is witnessing the massive departure of the Baby Boomer generation. Many are at retirement age and selling off and simply not pursuing the hobby any longer in favor of other endeavors, and of course, there's the inevitable passing along we'll all hit at some point.

Couple that with an absurd amount of over-graded Ikes flooding the market and this is why prices have crashed. The basically minuscule Ike market is easily full; supply has vastly outpaced demand for the last few years. PCGS alone has crushed Ike populations with the horrific quality of Ikes getting high-grade labels.

If you collect pre-1964 Washington quarters, you''re seeing a huge crash in prices there as well. You can buy many MS66 quarter dates for well under $100, some barely at $40 or $50. Couldn't do that a couple years ago. I just bought a nicely toned PCGS MS66 1964 Kennedy for $65; 5 years ago: $200.

I personally feel the hobby is losing about 2 - 3% of collectors per year after those entering the hobby are accounted for. That percent will increase.
Many folks got into coin collecting because it relates them to their younger or childhood years. It's a physical attachment to their personal history. The current younger generation sees coinage as an inconvenience, and with the current level of technology, they're absolutely right.

I would venture a guess that Ike demand/value will not recover for decades (if ever), well after physical coinage and currency have all but disappeared in favor of electronic currency.

If you're currently collecting Ikes, it better be purely for your own enjoyment.
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AndyO
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Re: Been away a while and now seeing lots of changes!

Post by AndyO » Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:39 pm

One other thing I think that boosted Ikes was the CPG. It appears Whitman is not going to do another issue. I don't even get a response from them. We submitted several candidates to them a few years back, and that's the last we heard. When that book came out at each edition release, there was a little uptick in activity.

FYI, we did upgrade the forum bigtime while you were out. Fixed a lot of problems behind the scene, got some things working properly. We know it's going to be a ghost town from here on out, but, we'll be here.
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Re: Been away a while and now seeing lots of changes!

Post by BrianVaile » Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:33 am

Welcome Back Apollo!

While you were gone, many factors have caused a pretty dramatic fall in high-end Ikes and drove prices down, this has opened the door for cheaper/better Cherry Pickin! :D

While the site wasn't real active while you were gone, The Ike Group has been active into getting some new, significant DIVA's added to "The DIVA Library". Including, some significant research in linking Proof Ike Dies being recycled on down to use on the 40% Business strikes. Here is a list of the new and possible upcoming DIVA's while you were away:

Past 18 Month highlights and New DIVa’s to look for!

71-P “Moon Mole”:
http://forum2.ikegroup.info/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2749

71-D “Extra Feather” 7 years later!
http://forum2.ikegroup.info/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2739

71-S Silver Proof “Double Double QDR”:
http://forum2.ikegroup.info/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2779

72-S “Stratocaster”
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1UcC ... hC7nQk/pub

Which is a more extreme version of Wexler’s 71-S DDO-027
http://forum2.ikegroup.info/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2803

72-S Silver Proof Trail Die: First proof of a proof die being used on the 40% Business strikes:
http://forum2.ikegroup.info/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2785

72-S Silver Proof “Chekov’s Larva”: Perhaps the 2nd example of a proof die getting used on the 40% Silver Business Strike:
Still under review:
http://forum2.ikegroup.info/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2786

73-D “Underscore ONE”
http://forum2.ikegroup.info/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2822

74-D TDO 4D-301
http://forum2.ikegroup.info/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2747

78-D “Strong UDU”:
http://forum2.ikegroup.info/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2776

In The Wings: Possible new upcoming DIVa’s:

72-S Silver “Blue Tooth”: Very similar to 73-S “Earache” Have slabbed examples.

73-S Silver Proof “Earwax”. Have slabbed examples.

74-D “Edward Scissor Hands”: Need slabbed examples.
http://forum2.ikegroup.info/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2891

76-D “Crying Ike”. Need slabbed examples.
http://forum2.ikegroup.info/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2898

76-S Die Clash Silver: Need slabbed examples,
http://forum2.ikegroup.info/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2738

78-D “Goiter”. Need slabbed examples
http://forum2.ikegroup.info/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2863

Lost a couple of very close Ike friends last year and had to take a break from Ikes myself for awhile. Back now!

Happy Hunting! :D
Brian
Last edited by BrianVaile on Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Apollo
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Re: Been away a while and now seeing lots of changes!

Post by Apollo » Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:47 am

July 2, 2018

Hello everyone, and thank you for your outstanding replies!

I know the frustration with PCGS, as many times I submitted Ikes on my own that looked much nicer then MS-66s they have slabbed, but routinely only got grades of MS-64 or MS-65. I have never been able to understand that!

In re-examining the Ike market after an 18-month absence, I was astonished to see 1971-P Ikes graded by PCGS as MS-65 selling for $40.00 to $50.00, and so on. Also, it seems like the population numbers have not really increased that much for the MS-66 to MS-67 coins so, at least based on population rarity they are still fairly scarce (yet much cheaper). One can also get a nice 1972 Type 2 in MS-65 for barely over $1,000.00!

Three or four years ago, it seems like Ikes were catching fire after being overlooked forever. We were also recognizing their real scarcity in grades over MS-66 or so. It is surprising how that has changed (are we just not getting a steady stream of new collectors?).

Also, what ever happened to Charles (Chatham?) who used to comment frequently on the Ike market?

Warm regards to all.

David
Last edited by Apollo on Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:39 am, edited 2 times in total.

Apollo
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Re: Been away a while and now seeing lots of changes!

Post by Apollo » Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:08 am

... and as a follow-up to my earlier post today, I now observe that the 1971-P Ike Dollar in MS-66 still only has a population of just 89 in PCGS and 45 in NGC (yet can now be purchased for less than $500.00). That is a total graded of only 134 between both services (with non-higher).

Am I missing something here?

David

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AndyO
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Re: Been away a while and now seeing lots of changes!

Post by AndyO » Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:09 pm

I now observe that the 1971-P Ike Dollar in MS-66 still only has a population of just 89 in PCGS and 45 in NGC (yet can now be purchased for less than $500.00).
First, I would not consider anything Ike in an NGC holder as worthy. I have simply had far too much experience with them in the last 20 years, and they continue to be a full point over-graded often times. Their sale prices are consistently lower than PCGS, and there are very few with CAC stickers as compared to PCGS.

Unfortunately, PCGS is far less consistent, as we've stated....

Please understand that a MS66 71 Ike was a conditional rarity. The population of that coin hovered around 15 - 25 at PCGS for many years. Then, about 5 years ago, it shot up and never looked back.

Other MS66 Ikes have skyrocketed. It used to be that a 72D in PCGS MS66 was a $350 coin. I see them all the time now for $100 with a vastly increased population. Again, the market is saturated. Those that want them, have them. 77's in MS66 are well under $100, used to run a solid $250 for a number of years.

Charles Chatham: absolutely not welcome here on this forum, ever again. Perhaps you meant Charles Morgan?
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Apollo
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Re: Been away a while and now seeing lots of changes!

Post by Apollo » Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:32 pm

... yes, I guess I was thinking of Charles Morgan. Boy, a lot has changed in 18-months!

And, regarding a 1971-P in a PCGS-66 holder, the population is apparently still under 100, if I am not mistaken. Given the way things are apparently going, do you see that specific number "skyrocketing" anytime soon?

I guess that I am trying to get a current sense of what (in terms of graded condition) is still legitimately rare, and likely to stay that way.

David

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AndyO
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Re: Been away a while and now seeing lots of changes!

Post by AndyO » Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:45 pm

It's all each person's perception of "skyrocketing". No Ike is rare. There is only condition rarity, which is now left to very few, such as the 71S proof T1 reverse.

For example MS66 T1 1972 PCGS Ike 5 years ago: 8-10K. Now: barely $2500, if that. The population has doubled in 3 years to 11. Spent 15 years at roughly 5.
1974 MS67 PCGS: was about $4000 5 years ago, now about $1250, the population still only 26.

I sold several 73 MS66 PCGS Ikes over the years for over $1500. Now, lucky to get $400 at a population of 139

Demand for high-grade Ikes has hit saturation. Supply is now far too much for the market to bare at former prices.
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Apollo
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Re: Been away a while and now seeing lots of changes!

Post by Apollo » Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:44 am

Having collected coins since the 1970s (and followed slabbing since it first appeared), I would now expect coins like the 1972 Type 1 (with a current top grade of MS-66) to suddenly start appearing in MS-67. Those MS-67s, in-turn, would then bring the former expensive MS-66 prices and so forth, and this grading service strategy has been know as "gradeflation" over the decades.

This is how grading services can always maintain a coin series with just a few, low population (and high-priced) coins at any one time. Their strategy also requires collectors to keep resubmitting coins to buy their way into the newly-created (and next highest) numerical grade tier.

Especially, in-turn, if they maintain "Registry" sets!

It appears to me that it just took a while for this to finally reach the Eisenhower Dollar series. I now suspect that within a few years you will see the current top Eisenhower Dollar grades advance by at least one numerical point upwards, for the same coins!

Plus, there will always be new superb examples found in a series such as the Eisenhower Dollar. There are just too many of them out there, although perhaps in 20 - 40 years the potential supply of "new to the market" gem coins will start to legitimately dry-up.

Thoughts?

David

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